ANALYST NOTES – 8/6/2024: Iran threatens to attack Israel on Tisha B’Av after Hamas assassinations in the heart of Tehran

Following the assassinations of Fuad Shukr and Ismail Haniyeh, there was likely a little saber-rattling from the Islamic Republic of Iran, anticipated by the world media and the intelligence community. But when one looks at what some analysts are calling the "Ring of Fire”; the 7 Iranian-aligned countries and political entities that border Israel, one is forced to acknowledge that this, too, may have been planned to some degree by the hardliners in Tehran.

Monday evening, reports went out that Russia had not just offered but indeed shipped heavy weapons to their Iranian allies. On Wednesday, it was reported that Hamas and Fatah had signed a memorandum of understanding between the terrorist factions of the leading political entities in the so-called West Bank and the Gaza envelope. Meanwhile, comparatively little has been heard from the Syrian forces under President Bashar al-Assad nor from the Iranian-aligned Houthis since the assassinations.

Could it be that Iran and its proxies are really so depleted that they have no bile or vitriol left for the State of Israel that they insult by referring only to it as the “Zionist entity”? Is this not the same mistake made prior to the October 7th attacks? With a flair for the dramatic, it was on Simchat Torah, one of the holiest days of the Jewish calendar, that Hamas militants swarmed across the border, attacking civilian kibbutzim and music festivals dedicated to the peace process. Indeed, it was a repeat of the surprise attacks on Yom Kippur of 1973 that the Iranian planners intended. Could it be purely coincidental that the most somber day of the Jewish calendar is approaching on the evening of August 12th?

A lesser-known holiday than Yom Kippur or Passover, Tisha B’Av is nonetheless just as meaningful and even more relevant to a war footing. Tisha B’Av, or the Ninth day of the Hebrew month of Av, is a day of mourning that commemorates the destruction of the First Temple in 586 BC and the Second Temple in 70 AD. Therefore, the symbolism of attacking the heart of Israel on a day set aside to remember Israel’s two greatest defeats may, in fact, be too much temptation for the Islamic Republic to resist.

Analysis: Perhaps at no time since October 7th, 2023, has the specter of a third world war been as near and present a danger as it is today. Reeling from the assassination of Iran’s president, setbacks in both Gaza and Lebanon and the propaganda nightmare of the youth soccer match hit by Hezbollah rockets in the Northern Israeli Druze enclave of Magdal Shams, no time has been more opportune for the full might of the Iranian military to be hurled at the Jewish State.

At TyrSight, we assess that there is a real danger of the previous regional conflict in Israel expanding from a mid-level proxy war to a full-blown third-world war. Furthermore, all of the previous caution regarding trade on the Red Sea, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Persian Gulf is all the more relevant. Heavy shipping in those areas, what’s left of it, will necessarily come to a screeching halt. Iranian forces will also likely increase their cyber activity, especially against American and Israeli accounts, and perhaps an effort will be made to intercept American men and materiel en route to temper the simmering Middle Eastern conflict. Look for anti-Israeli protests to return to college campuses this fall, and businesses should anticipate market volatility through the end of August as the world holds its collective breath.