ANALYST NOTES – 8/25/2024: Iranian Cyber Attacks Highlight Continued Threats to U.S. Elections

In mid-August 2024, a spear-phishing and social engineering operation carried out by Iranian state-sponsored hacking group APT42 bore fruit, successfully breaching internal communications from former President Trump’s presidential campaign. The FBI previously reported that the same group has also been targeting the campaigns of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris since June of this year.

These tactics represent a fraction of the growing efforts by state actors to meddle in US presidential elections. In addition to cyberattacks, these operations typically include influence campaigns designed to sow discord and reshape public opinion. Sensitive information from security breaches can also be selectively leaked to create a false sense of legitimacy while spreading disinformation.

Other attacks from Iranian groups this year have targeted senior political officials as well as local government organizations in swing states. These groups also operate a variety of news sites and social media accounts, impersonating extremist organizations and amplifying divisive domestic issues to destabilize US politics further.

Analysis: The timing of these attacks is significant given the broader geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. The US’s continued support of Israel, the recent assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran, and ongoing military posturing in the Middle East are all stark reminders of Iran’s interest in influencing US policy.

This context is further complicated by the contrast between the Trump Administration’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and subsequent economic pressure campaign and the current administration’s complete reversal with the release of over 15 billion dollars in frozen Iranian assets. By targeting both sides of the aisle, Iran is likely attempting to gather intelligence that could influence future negotiations or undermine political figures it perceives as threats to its national interests.

Meanwhile, other significant purveyors of influence operations include Russia and China, who also have a long history of interference in US politics. In the current election cycle, Russia has primarily concentrated its efforts on social media content designed to weaken US support for Ukraine. China, like Iran, seeks to aggravate US social divisions, particularly around issues of racial and economic inequality. China also continues to exploit TikTok's algorithmic control to selectively promote social media content that is misleading or aligned with its international self-interest.

The US voting population is particularly susceptible to these influence operations due to its increasing reliance on social media and unverified news sources. Many voters cannot evaluate the accuracy of information they encounter online critically, and social media platforms that prioritize engagement often encourage the spread of misinformation that exploits emotional appeals and sensationalism. While these recent cyberattacks highlight the need for increased vigilance amongst those with access to sensitive information, they also underscore the broader risks posed by an uninformed voter populace that hostile foreign actors can easily manipulate.

These effects can extend far beyond the initial election results, potentially destabilizing trade, heightening geopolitical tensions, and increasing market volatility. The U.S. economy is particularly vulnerable, given its current condition and strain from increased interest rates and cost of living. Any additional instability could tip the scales and trigger a more severe economic downturn.