ANALYST NOTES - 6/18/2024: U.S. Intelligence Community OSINT Strategy and Use of AI

On 8 March 2024, the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) published its first-ever Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) strategy, reconfirming OSINT as the “INT of first resort” in meeting our nation’s intelligence needs. The IC OSINT Strategy emphasizes four strategic focus areas for the next three years:

1. Coordinate OSINT acquisition and expand sharing

2. Establish integrated OSINT collection management

3. Drive OSINT innovation to deliver new capabilities

4. Develop the next-generation OSINT workforce and tradecraft

Later in May, the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) followed up with the release of its own Open Source Intelligence Strategy. As with the IC version, the INR OSINT Strategy also lays out four areas of strategic focus:

1. Establish governance and policy for OSINT use

2. Invest in OSINT capabilities

3. Strengthen OSINT training and tradecraft

4. Deepen collaboration with allies, partners, industry, academia, and other nongovernmental entities

Key Takeaways

• While the CIA serves as Functional Manager of OSINT, proclaiming it the INT of first resort is nonetheless remarkable, given the historical prestige that HUMINT has held within the Agency.

• The popularity of OSINT has increased significantly during the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Palestine conflict. OSINT’s low cost and relative ease of entry compared to other intelligence disciplines make it an attractive tool for modern warfare, particularly in asymmetric conflict. This parallels a dramatic recent uptick in low-cost (yet devastatingly effective) kinetic strike options, particularly drones.

• IC OSINT Strategy 2024-2026 recognizes the “significant opportunities” that Artificial Intelligence (AI) presents for exploiting the full potential of OSINT. AI is crucial for harnessing massive amounts of open-source data, as it enables the efficient processing and extraction of valuable insights from what Assistant Secretary for INR Brett Holmgren calls an “avalanche of data.” On the other hand, a recent report from the Italian Association of Analysts of Intelligence and Geopolitics @AIAIG demonstrates that “the winning answer is not to automate analysis but rather to humanize it” using the intelligence analysts’ own reasoning capabilities. The question is no longer finding enough relevant information, but rather employing the right tools, techniques, and people to uncover the needles in ever-increasing haystacks.