ANALYST NOTES - 6/17/2024: European Union Parliament Election

The European Union (EU) recently held its first European Parliament elections since the UK’s withdrawal (referred to popularly as Brexit). From June 6-9, voters from the 27-nation bloc elected 720 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) to serve over the next five years. According to Statista, over 50 percent of EU citizens voted in the elections, the highest recorded voter turnout since 1994.

The election results showed significant gains for the EU’s right-wing parties, continuing a rightward shift over the past two decades. The center-right European People’s Party (EPP) remains the largest group in the parliament, gaining 14 additional seats for a total of 190. Far-right parties in each of Europe’s three biggest economies (Germany, France, and Italy) also scored significant victories.

In the case of France, the blow forced President Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the French parliament and hold a snap parliamentary election later this month, in a risky bid to regain political standing.

Meanwhile, the elections showed a significant backlash against Europe's Green parties which saw their 71 seats in the outgoing parliament reduced to 53.

Key Takeaways

• 2024 is a super-cycle for global politics. In addition to the European Parliament (EP) elections, approximately 73 countries worldwide are holding national elections throughout the year. While US voters are not typically influenced by foreign politics, the Biden administration faces many of the same issues impacting recent EU voters: high costs of living, rising anti-immigration sentiment, and pushback against the war in Ukraine. Populist parties in Europe have capitalized on these concerns, a strategy former president and current republican nominee Trump will surely employ.

• An oft-repeated criticism of the EU is its perceived lack of a unified voice on global issues. A fragmented EP makes it more difficult to address security challenges and environmental concerns, as well as to standardize its economic policy to better address rising competition from the United States and China. On the other hand, the EU from its founding has navigated uneasy political alliances between parties and member countries spanning the spectrum of political ideologies. It remains to be seen how the election results will impact EU support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Spain, Ireland, and Norway (the former two are EU members) recently took steps to formally recognize Palestinian statehood, moving the needle to a slight majority (14 of 27 member states).