ANALYST NOTES – 3/6/2025: Federal Layoffs Driving Foreign Recruitment Efforts

Summary: Foreign adversaries, including Russia and China, are reportedly ramping up efforts to recruit recently terminated U.S. federal employees, particularly those with security clearances. U.S. intelligence suggests that these countries are exploiting mass layoffs initiated by the Trump administration as part of a federal workforce reduction plan. 

The Naval Criminal Investigative Service (NCIS) assessed with "high confidence" that foreign intelligence agencies are actively targeting vulnerable former employees, believing they may be disgruntled or financially desperate. Officials worry that these individuals, possessing sensitive information on critical U.S. infrastructure and intelligence operations, could become prime targets for espionage. Recruitment strategies include setting up fake job postings on LinkedIn and other social media platforms to lure displaced workers.

U.S. intelligence community (IC) officials are discussing strategies to mitigate these risks. Thousands of probationary government workers have already been let go, with more expected to follow as agencies submit federally-mandated reorganization plans.

However, Director of National Intelligence (DNI), Tulsi Gabbard, has dismissed such concerns, claiming they are politically motivated attempts to undermine the administration’s downsizing efforts. She likewise placed the blame for any potential espionage on the fired employees themselves.

Analysis: The ongoing mass layoffs could offer an ideal recruitment environment for foreign intelligence services that might seek to exploit financially vulnerable or resentful former employees. In fact, the U.S. Intelligence Community itself often targets disgruntled foreign employees for recruitment, underscoring the effectiveness of such strategies.

As one source close to the situation reported,  “It doesn’t take much imagination to see that these marginalized federal workers with a wealth of institutional knowledge represent astonishingly attractive targets for the intelligence services of our competitors and adversaries.”

Whether blame lies primarily with the recently fired employees (as DNI Gabbard suggests) or the federal workforce reduction plan matters less than the potential net impact. The CIA may have already inadvertently made some American secrets available to foreign spies and hackers. While complying with the executive order, the CIA reportedly disclosed, via an unclassified email server, a listing of all employees who have been with the agency for two years or less. This list likely includes officials preparing to operate undercover or who possessed classified information about the agency’s operations and tradecraft, some of whom may have already been fired as part of the cuts.

Along with ego and ideology, frustration with their employer and financial need are among the most common factors driving individuals to commit espionage. However, according to CIA clinical psychologist, Ursula Wilder, these drivers alone are not sufficient to provoke espionage. Most individuals possess any number of problematic personality traits but will never engage in criminal conduct. “Espionage must be triggered by a crisis and the person’s assessment that illicit criminal conduct offers the solution to or an escape from the crisis.” Intentionally or not, we may have just created such a situation.